Tu Dien Forex

Hawkish v Dovish l g Hai t Hawkish v Dovish ny xut hin t nc M. Chng ta s bt u tm hiu tng quan v FED hiu r hn hai t ny. V tng quan, ngn hng trung ng nc M khc vi cc nc khc im: NHTW M hay c gi l Cc D tr lin bang M (Fed) c quyn ct quyt vn chnh sch tin tm khng phi thng qua Quc hi (chnh ph M mc quan c quyn l B ti chnh) Do vy, khc vi cc nc khc, NHTW M thng c gi theo tn Cc d tr lin bang M (FED) Nc M c rt nhiu bang v mi bang uc 1 ch tch Fed ca Bang Do vy, trc khi a n quyt nh chnh sch Zinn t cho t nc, s c cc cuc tho lun v chnh sch tin t v b phiu ca cc quan chc FED (Heu l cc ch tch FED tng bang). Mt nm FED s c nh k 8 cuc hp. Mi cuc hp din ra trong 2 ngy v sau 2 ngy sc bo co (FOMC Statement) rng ri n th trng Do c nhiu quan chc FED tham gia tho lun nn chia lm 2 quan im v chnh sch Zinn t 1. Hawkish (Heu Cn c gi l phe diu hu). Bao gm nhng quan chc ng h tht cht tin t 2. Dovish (Heu cn c gi l phe b cu): bao gm nhng quan chc ng h ni lng Zinn tKin Thc Forex Vng Kai ca nn kinh t lun tn ti Song Song lm Pht v tng trng kinh t 1. Nu tc lm pht gt tc tng trng kinh t, tng ng vi vic gi c tng cao hn so vi lng sn xut hng ha zu ra, l iu khng tt v cn iu chnh tht cht li chnh Sch tin t. 2. Nu tc lm pht bng hoc nh hn tc tng trng kinh t, tng ng vi vic gi c bng hoc nh hn lng sn xut hng ha zu ra, l iu tt vi nn kinh t. 3. Khi cn tng trng kinh t, NHNH s zu ra cc chng trnh kch thch kinh t cc ch th gia tng sn xut hng ha, bng cch ni lng tin t. - Khi cn tng trng kinh t, NHNN s ni lng tin t bng cch gim li sut - Khi cn kim ch lm pht, NHNN s tht cht tin t bng cch tng li sut n thi im hin ti, QE3 ch cn cch 2 cuc Hp FOMC nh k hng nm trc khi kt thc. Chng ta hy im li cc mc thi gian quan trng trong chnh sch ni lng tin t ca M kt sau khi khng hong ti chnh 2008 din ra vi chnh sch li sut siu thp v cc gi ni lng nh lng QE1, QE2, QE3 1 Chnh sch li sut cc thp gn bng 0, tc ZIRP, giai auf t thng 12 nm 2008 n hin ti Vo thng 8 nm 2007, mc tiu li sut c bn Pfandrecht c FOMC l 5,25. Su thng sau, cuc khng hong ti chnh din ra, FOMC gim mc tiu cho li sut c bng lin bang gn nh bng 0, nhm ni lng tin t v tng cng tn dng. Trong 5 nm qua, Cc d tr lien bang hnh ng nhiu hn h tr tng trng kinh t v zu thm vic lm. Do cs khng chc chn v hn ch cng c chnh sch ca mnh, Fed tip tc cung cp cc chnh sch ni lng b gesungen khi cn thit thc y phc hi kinh t mnh m hn v ci dünnen bn vng trong iu kin th trng lao Ng trong bi cnh gi cn nh 2. Ni lng nh lng lng 1, tc QE1, giai auf t thng 12 nm 2008 n thng 3 nm 2010 Vo ng 25 thng 11 nm 2008, Cc d tr lien bang M Fed thng bo rng hs mua 600 t USD chng khon th Chp vn ca cc t chc ln. Vo ngy 01 thng 12 nm 2008, Ch tch Fed ng Bernanke cung cp thm cc chi tit trong bi pht biu ca mnh. Vo ng 16 thng 12 nm 2008, chng trnh mua chng khon th chp (MBS) v cc khon n c chnh thc ein ra. Vo ng 18 thng 3 nm 2009, FOMC thng bo rng chng trnh trn s c m rng bng cch tng mua thm 750 t USD chng khon th chp v cc khon n. V 300 t USD mua tri phiu kho bc 3. Ni lng nh lng 2, tc QE2, giai auf t thng 11 nm 2010 n thng 6 nm 2011 Vo ngy 3 thng 11 nm 2010, Fed tuyn bs mua 600 t USD tri phiu kho Bc di hn, vi 75 t USD mi thng. Ni lng nh lng 2,5, tc QE2,5, Heu Betrieb Twist, giai auf t thng 9 nm 2011 n ht nm 2012 Vo ng 21 thng 9 nm 2011, FOMC kt thc cuc hp thng bo v vic thc Hin Operation Twist. Ylk hoch mua 400 t USD tri phiu k hn 6 n 30 nm v bn ra mt lng tng ng tri phiu k hn di 3 nm. Ng ny nhm gim chi ph vay mn m khng bm thm tin vo nn kinh t. Vo ng 20 thng 6 nm 2012, FED tng quy m QE2.5 ln 267 t USD, m rng chng trnh cho n ht nm 2012. 4. Ni lng nh lng ln 3, tc QE3, giai auf bt ut thng 9 nm 2012 , D kin n thng 10 nm 2014 Vo ngy 13 thng 9 nm 2012, Cc d tr lien bang M Fed cng b vng ni lng nh lng ln 3 (QE3), cung cp mua 40 t USD chng khon th chp mi thng cho n Khi th trng lao ng c ci dünn ng k vo ngy 12 thng 12 nm 2012, FOMC tip tc m rng thm vi 45 t USD tri phiu kho bc di hn. Nng tng s Zinn QE3 mi thng ln 85 t USD. Vo ng 18 thng 12 nm 2013, FOMC thng bo h tin hnh 8220tapring QE8221 gim dn tc mua tri phiu kho bc v chng khon th chp hng thng vi 10 t USD mi cuc hp Nm 2014 din ra 8 cuc hp vl trnh ct gim dn 85 t USD chia ra trong 8 cuc hp, d kin kt thc vo thng 10 nm 2014. Cc bn chc hn vn bit v gi ni lng nh lng QE3 (mua 85 t USD tri phiu kho bc di hn v chng khon th chp) . T u nm 2014, qua cc cuc hp nh k ca mnh, FED lin tc ct gim un mi thng 10 t USD chng trnh mua tri phiu vd kin l trnh ct gim s kt thc vo thng 10. Ngi ta gi qu trnh ct gim QE3 dn dn theo l trnh tng thng nh vy vi t chung l Taper. Nu cc bn Heu theo di thng Zinn ti chnh th gii v c Bit Zinn v kinh t M trong nhng nm gn y, cc bn chc hn s nghe ti cm t Ni lng nh lng QE. Vy ni lng nh lng QE lg Trc ht, chng ta s bn v cc chng trnh kch thch kinh t ti M. Ging nh cc nc khc, kch thch kinh t ban u M ss dng cng c li sut bm rng tin vo nn kinh T bng cch gim li sut, kch thch cc ch th vay tiu dng vut zu ra hng ha cho nn kinh t. Ti M. khi li sut c h xung mc thp nht k lc gn bng 0. H khng th h li sut xung na nn s dng mt cng c cp cao hn, l ni lng nh lng QE. Cc bn c th xem hnh di hiu qua v quy trnh V bn cht, QE cng l hnh thc bm tin vo nn kinh t nhng khng trc tip nh li sut. Thc Hin QE, Fed s c 3 bc Zinn hnh 1. Fed mua tri phiu chnh ph, cc loi chng khon th chp ca b ti chnh. Qua bm tin cho b ti chnh 2. B ti chnh Zinn hnh hnh ng tng t nh Fed, nhng ln ny i tc l cc ngn hng. 3. Cc ngn hng c ngun Zinn c th tng cho vay cho cc ch th trong v ngoi nc Hin ti din ra 3 ln QE. QE1 - QE2 - QE3 QE1: Bt ut cui thng 11 nm 2008 vi 1700 t USD QE2: Ngy 3 thng 11 nm 2010 n thng 6 nm 2011 vi 600 t USD QE3: Bt ut thng 9 nm 2012. mi thng 85 t USD - Khng gii hn Hai t Hawkish v Dovish ny xut hin t nc M. Chng ta s bt u tm hiu tng quan v FED hiu r hn hai t ny. V tng quan, ngn hng trung ng nc M khc vi cc nc khc im: NHTW M hay c gi l Cc D tr lin bang M (Fed) c quyn ct quyt vn chnh sch tin tm khng phi thng qua Quc hi (chnh ph M mc quan c quyn l B ti chnh) Do vy, khc vi cc nc khc, NHTW M thng c gi theo tn Cc d tr lin bang M (FED) Nc M c rt nhiu bang v mi bang uc 1 ch tch Fed ca Bang Do vy, trc khi a n quyt nh chnh sch Zinn t cho t nc, s c cc cuc tho lun v chnh sch tin t v b phiu ca cc quan chc FED (Heu l cc ch tch FED tng bang). Mt nm FED s c nh k 8 cuc hp. Mi cuc hp din ra trong 2 ngy v sau 2 ngy sc bo co (FOMC Statement) rng ri n th trng Do c nhiu quan chc FED tham gia tho lun nn chia lm 2 quan im v chnh sch Zinn t 1. Hawkish (Heu Cn c gi l phe diu hu). Bao gm nhng quan chc ng h tht cht tin t 2. Dovish (Heu cn c gi l phe b cu): bao gm nhng quan chc ng h ni lng Zinn t